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Publication Date
11 December 2015

The Relationship between Interannual and Long-Term Cloud Feedbacks

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Analyses of CMIP5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the inter-annual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual and long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models, and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. The inter-model correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.

“The Relationship Between Interannual And Long-Term Cloud Feedbacks”. 2015. Geophysical Research Letters 42. doi:10.1002/2015GL066698.
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