Robustness and Uncertainties in Global Multivariate Wind-Wave Climate Projections

TitleRobustness and Uncertainties in Global Multivariate Wind-Wave Climate Projections
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2019
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume9
Number9
Pages711-718
Date Published09/2019
Abstract / Summary

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
DOI10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
Journal: Nature Climate Change
Year of Publication: 2019
Volume: 9
Number: 9
Pages: 711-718
Date Published: 09/2019

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
Citation:
Morim, J, M Hemer, X Wang, N Cartwright, C Trenham, A Semedo, I Young, et al.  2019.  "Robustness and Uncertainties in Global Multivariate Wind-Wave Climate Projections."  Nature Climate Change 9(9): 711-718.  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5.