Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

TitleUncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2016
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
VolumeMay 2016
Date Published07/2016
Abstract

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced [e.g., from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)]. With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty.

URLhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00297.1
DOI10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00297.1
Funding Program: 
Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume: May 2016

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced [e.g., from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)]. With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty.

DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00297.1
Year of Publication: 2016
Citation: "Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2016;May 2016.