Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling

Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population

TitleUrban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2020
AuthorsBrelsford, Christa, Coon Ethan T., V Edward Moran, and Allen-Dumas Melissa
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume47
Abstract / Summary

Strategies for creating quantitative projections for human systems, especially impervious surfaces, are necessary to consider the human drivers of climate and ecosystem change. There are models that generate predictions of how impervious surfaces may change in response to different potential futures, but few tools exist for validating those predictions. We seek to fill that gap. We demonstrate a statistically robust sublinear scaling relationship between population and urban imperviousness across a 15 year history. We show that Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) urbanization projections are also consistent with theory. These results demonstrate a theory that can be used to validate other models' predictions of urban growth and land cover change, analogous to the ways in which allometric scaling laws in biology have been used to validate process-based models of ecosystem composition under different climate scenarios.

URLhttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL089742
DOI10.1029/2020GL089742
Funding Program: 
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
Year of Publication: 2020
Volume: 47
Publication Date: 11/2020

Strategies for creating quantitative projections for human systems, especially impervious surfaces, are necessary to consider the human drivers of climate and ecosystem change. There are models that generate predictions of how impervious surfaces may change in response to different potential futures, but few tools exist for validating those predictions. We seek to fill that gap. We demonstrate a statistically robust sublinear scaling relationship between population and urban imperviousness across a 15 year history. We show that Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) urbanization projections are also consistent with theory. These results demonstrate a theory that can be used to validate other models' predictions of urban growth and land cover change, analogous to the ways in which allometric scaling laws in biology have been used to validate process-based models of ecosystem composition under different climate scenarios.

DOI: 10.1029/2020GL089742
Citation:
Brelsford, C, ET Coon, E Moran V, and M Allen-Dumas.  2020.  "Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population."  Geophysical Research Letters 47.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089742.