Climate Dynamics Preceding Summer Forest Fires in California and the Extreme Case of 2018
We find that a dry atmosphere, high temperatures, dry soils, less snowpack, low precipitation, subsiding air, and high pressure centered west of California all correlate significantly with large summer burned area as far back as the preceding January. These climate anomalies occur as part of a hemispheric scale pattern with weak connections to the tropical Pacific Ocean. We also describe the climate anomalies preceding the extreme and record-breaking burned-area year of 2018, and how these compared with the more general patterns found.
These results give important insight into how well and how early it might be possible to predict the severity of an upcoming summer wildfire season in California.
The purpose of this study was to identify the local and global climate patterns in the preceding seasons that influence how the burned summer forest area in California varies year to year.