- We show that ~20% of land experiences a diminished seasonal cycle of water availability, mostly over subtropical regions and the Amazon, using projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
- We show that we demonstrate that 63% of the seasonality reduction is driven by seasonally varying soil moisture (SM) feedbacks on P–E.
- Global warming is expected to cause wet seasons to get wetter and dry seasons to get drier, which would have broad social and ecological implications.
- Our results underscore the importance of soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks for seasonal water availability changes in a warmer climate.
This analysis leverages both CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulation experiments to examine seasonal changes in surface water availability (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E).