28 February 2019

Future Heat Waves and Surface Ozone


This study identifies the relationship between ozone and temperature during heat waves globally and illustrates that temperature is not necessarily a primary control on modeled ozone concentrations in future heat waves. This is due to the dependence on how ozone precursors are prescribed in future emission scenarios, and how related emissions of VOCs can be affected by temperature and influence ozone concentrations. Because of these factors, heat waves in a future warmer climate cannot necessarily be associated with a particular air quality outcome and future emissions of ozone precursors, together with the possibility of effects from ozone suppression at high temperatures will have a role in the ultimate outcome. 

Gerald Meehl
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Meehl, GA, C Tebaldi, S Tilmes, J Lamarque, S Bates, A Pendergrass, and D Lombardozzi.  2018.  "Future Heat Waves and Surface Ozone."  Environmental Research Letters 13(6): 064004.  https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdc.