A need for Actionable Climate Projections Across the Global South
This commentary uses multiple generations of CMIP output to demonstrate a lack of agreement across the reports, particularly in precipitation projections where even the sign of change is ambiguous. Opportunities associated with ongoing technological developments, including machine learning and high-resolution modeling, and regional coordinated climate assessments are highlighted.
This work draws attention to the heightened vulnerability of the Global South in the context of both model structural uncertainty and uncertain trajectories of future anthropogenic emissions. These vulnerabilities are compounded by the limited resources of countries in the Global South to conduct their own regional modeling and climate assessments. Various suggestions are made including coordinated assessment and modeling activities across countries.
This work highlights the lack of agreement in climate projections for the Global South across successive IPCC reports, which is particularly strong for precipitation, and the associated challenges faced by some of the nations that are most vulnerable to climate change. The commentary suggests paths forward using emerging technologies and coordinated regional collaborations to strengthen our understanding of impending climate changes and inform adaptation and mitigation policies.