27 March 2019

Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model

Science

  

Impact

  

Summary

The objective of near-term climate prediction is to improve our foreknowledge, from years to a decade or more in advance, of impactful Earth System changes that can be attributed to a combination of internal and externally-forced variability. Predictions initialized using observations of past climate states are tested by comparing their ability to reproduce past observed climate evolution with that of uninitialized simulations in which the same radiative forcings are applied. A new set of decadal prediction (DP) simulations has recently been completed using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is now available to the community. This new large ensemble set (CESM-DP-LE) is comprised of historical simulations that are integrated forward for 10 years following initialization on November 1st of each year between 1954 and 2015. CESM-DP-LE exhibits significant and potentially useful prediction skill for a wide range of fields, regions, and timescales, and it shows widespread improvement over simpler benchmark forecasts as well as over a previous initialized system.

Contact
Gerald Meehl
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Publications
Yeager, S, G Danabasoglu, N Rosenbloom, W Strand, S Bates, G Meehl, A Karspeck, et al.  2018.  "Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model."  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99(9): 1867-1886.  https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-17-0098.1.