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Contrasting Responses of Hailstorms to Anthropogenic Climate Change in Different Synoptic Weather Systems

Presentation Date
Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 4:15pm



Hailstones generate substantial economic losses across the United States and the globe. Their strong association with short-lived, intense convective storms poses a great challenge to predict their future changes. This work finds contrasting responses of large hail to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) associated with two major types of synoptic systems in spring over the central United States. The storms associated with frontal systems produced over 60% more large hail (diameters > 2.5 cm), whereas those associated with Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) systems are not sensitive to ACC. This is explained by the larger increase in convective intensity and updraft volume and a smaller increase in warm cloud depth in the frontal storms due to strengthened low pressure systems. The extreme precipitation from both types of systems is equally sensitive to ACC. These results have important implications for predicting and managing risks for future hail and flash floods.

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