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Progress toward understanding tipping points in Earth System Models

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Abstract

To date, research into climate tipping points has mostly leveraged idealized models to intermediate complexity climate models. Recently, Earth System Models are gaining traction as tools to simulate, understand, and quantify tipping points.  Some tipping points that had only been diagnosed in idealized modeling have successfully been captured in complex Earth System Models, e.g. the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.  In the first part of this work, we present an overview of progress to date in understanding and simulating several critical climatic tipping points.  We then summarize ongoing and emerging projects focused on tipping points and outstanding questions and grand challenges.  We end with a discussion of unique roles DOE ESMD research can play in tipping point research.

Category
Impacts, Tipping Points and Systems Responses and Resilience
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