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Improving Projections of AMOC and Collapse Through advanced Simulations

Funding Program Area(s)
Project Type
Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC)
Project Term
Project Team

Principal Investigator

Task / Institutional Lead

In 2022 the DOE's Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) program, a partnership between DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) and Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Offices, launched the Improving Projections of AMOC and Collapse Through Advanced Simulations (ImPACTS) project.  The ImPACTS project has two main objectives: 1) increase our physical understanding of AMOC and how it is represented in Earth System Models (ESMs), 2) develop advances in analyses, workflows, and eddy-resolving ESM initialization and efficiency to enable long-term simulations of AMOC and its stability. In the first objective, we will bring together analyses from the ESM and applied math communities to accelerate our analysis capability and transform our understanding of AMOC. While ML/AI analyses for ESM simulations have expanded greatly, none of these analyses have proven transformational. By leveraging the state of the science in AI from the RAPIDS2 institute, we will push the boundaries of AI for ESM analysis. In the second objective, we will utilize recent successes in AI to generate physics-constrained initial conditions at eddy-resolving resolution, allowing us to dramatically reduce the extreme times to achieve ocean equilibration. Improvements in MPAS-ocean model throughput will increase E3SM exascale readiness and has the potential to more than double the performance of the model. Taken together, these improvements will allow us to simulate hundreds of years at eddy-resolving resolution. These two primary objectives will proceed in parallel through most of the proposal but will later combine to deeply probe AMOC strength and its stability across model resolutions, which will be informed by a novel simulation campaign.