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Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Activity at the LGM

Presentation Date
Tuesday, December 14, 2021 at 2:00pm
Convention Center - Poster Hall, D-F



Understanding the response of tropical cyclones is critical for mitigating the effects of future climate change. Investigating past climates provide an avenue to explore tropical cyclones in conditions far removed from present-day. Here, we add to this effort with high resolution climate model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka) and Preindustrial (PI; 1850 CE). Specifically, we use the water isotope tracer enabled version of the Community Earth System Model version 1.3 (iCESM1.3) at ~0.25° horizontal resolution to explicitly simulate tropical cyclone activity around the world. Our preliminary results suggest a general decrease in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity at the LGM relative to PI. This reduction in activity is particularly pronounced in the North Atlantic, Indian, and South Pacific oceans. In contrast, we find an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific at the LGM. These spatially variable changes highlight the complex response of tropical cyclones in the past. This presentation will discuss the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulated tropical cyclone response at the LGM and possible evidence in paleoclimate records.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Funding Program Area(s)