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Storylines as a tool for advancing co-production of science and informing climate adaptation pathways: A perspective from the U.S. DOE HyperFACETS Project

Presentation Date
Thursday, December 16, 2021 at 8:48am
Location
Convention Center - Hall D-2, First Floor
Authors

Author

Abstract

Shepherd et al. define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. Storylines can consist of a recreation of these events, an assessment of its contingent factors, and an exploration of future analogues. Storylines are an essential tool in our climate science toolbox for several reasons: They are the primary mechanism through which people experience truly impactful weather, and so are an excellent starting point for building mutual understanding between scientists and stakeholders; they allow us to connect scientific analysis, model evaluation and process understanding within a single framework; and they help us overcome the probabilistic view of an uncertain future. By bringing together a diverse, nationwide team of scientists and stakeholders, the U.S. Department of Energy HyperFACETS project has jointly investigated eight highly impactful storylines in the USA, and developed corresponding future analogues. Together we have learned how storylines are informative to multi-sector impacts and interactions within energy, water and land systems; how well models are able to capture events of significant impact; and what might be expected of similar events in the future. In this presentation we review the motivation and framing of the HyperFACETS project, and present our key results and lessons learned, particularly how our approach informs multi-sector dynamics and adaptation in the face of future weather extremes.

Funding Program Area(s)