Earth System Modeling

Optimizing emerging high-performance computing and information technologies, the Earth System Modeling (ESM) Program concentrates on advancing coupled climate and Earth system models for climate change projections at global-to-regional spatial scales and temporal scales spanning decadal to centennial. The ESM program focuses on research that improves representations in specific model components to achieve credible high-resolution climate simulations that address the variability and predictability of climate system changes and directly impact societal issues pertaining to future energy use and technology. ESM research and modeling tools directly support the Regional and Global Climate Modeling (RGCM) program. In addition, ESM contributes to the Climate Variability and Change element of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and coordinates with climate modeling programs sourced at other federal agencies.

Recent Content

Recent Highlights

Explicit aqueous phase redox, pH, and mineral interaction dynamics were coupled to the Converging Trophic Cascade (CTC) decomposition model, enabling prediction of CO2 and CH4 production from Arctic polygonal tundra soils under laboratory incubations over a range of temperatures. Our results...
In this study, we investigated how P cycling dynamics might affect tropical ecosystem responses to changes in atmospheric CO2 and climate using a P-enabled land surface model. We demonstrated that the coupling of P dynamics reduces the simulated historical terrestrial C sink due to increasing...
This study examines Leaf Area Index (LAI, area of leaves per area of ground) during the growing season (April-October) over the NEL (30°–75°N). Previous work assessing modeled and observed LAI has focused on timing of seasonal growth, interannual variability, and multiyear trends. Earlier studies...
An innovative and low-cost field experiment provided new results regarding the fundamental process of photosynthetic carbon uptake in the face of varying levels of nutrient limitation. Experimental results refute current modeling approach for instantaneous downregulation of carbon uptake, and...
Because current global climate models contain a large number of uncertain parameters in representing processes unresolved by the computational mesh, quantifying these uncertain parameters is important for future climate projections. The chaotic nature of the atmospheric noise, however, often...

Publications

Soil organic carbon turnover to CO2 and CH4 is sensitive to soil redox potential and pH conditions. However, land surface models do not consider redox and pH in the aqueous phase explicitly, thereby limiting their use for making predictions in anoxic environments. Using recent data from...
The effects of phosphorus (P) availability on carbon (C) cycling in the Amazon region are investigated using CLM-CNP. We demonstrate that the coupling of P dynamics reduces the simulated historical terrestrial C sink due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) by about 26%. Our...
Significant land greening in the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) has been documented through satellite observations during the past three decades. This enhanced vegetation growth has broad implications for surface energy, water and carbon budgets, and ecosystem services across multiple...
Models predicting ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange under future climate change rely on relatively few real world tests of their assumptions and outputs. Here, we demonstrate a rapid and cost-effective method to estimate CO2 exchange from intact vegetation patches under varying atmospheric...
A new characteristic discontinuous Galerkin (CDG) advection scheme is presented. In contrast to standard discontinuous Galerkin schemes, the test functions themselves follow characteristics in order to ensure conservation and the edges of each element are also traced backwards along...