Integrated Assessment Research

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) guide understanding of global climate change by addressing its drivers, pace, consequences, and implications. Future IAMs and related tools must inform regional and local integrated planning at shorter temporal scales as well as have broader applicability, including: vulnerability analyses spanning multiple, interactive stressors; analysis of how science and technology affect mitigation and adaptation; measurement of the effects of human behavior; and assessment of combined economic effects of varied response strategies and policies. IAMs also will explore crucial intersecting systems (energy, water, and land nexus) and their interdependencies. Through their analyses of climate change impacts, IAMs inform some of the most significant energy, economic, and infrastructure decisions affecting the world today.

Recent Content

Recent Highlights

Accounting for the uncertainty and dynamic nature of the multiscale interactions among diverse components of a hydrologic system requires a new strategy to effectively integrate hydrological processes.
Models to help understand land use range from highly detailed local scenarios to massive, integrated systems that link energy, agriculture, and the economy over areas as large as the continent of Africa. But more sophisticated land-use modeling yields a complicated set of results when translated...
There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water...
Residential buildings are a key driver of energy consumption and also impact transportation and land-use. Energy consumption in the residential sector accounts for one-fifth of total U.S. energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions, with floor space a major driver of building energy...
Stream temperature is a key determinant of aquatic ecosystem production and survival but also influences coal-fired energy production. However, it is generally not represented in Earth system models so its potentially large-scale impacts on aquatic ecosystem and coastal and ocean in coupled...

Publications

Five new scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), have been developed, spanning a range of challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 (SSP4), “ Inequality ” or “ A Road Divided, ” is one of these scenarios, characterized by low challenges...
Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate...
In most water resources applications, any particular model structure might be inadequate to capture the dynamic multi-scale interactions among different hydrological processes. Calibrating single models for dynamic catchments, where multiple dominant processes exist, can result in displacement of...
This study assesses the value of enhanced spatial resolution in the agriculture and land use component of an integrated assessment (IA) model. IA models typically represent land use decisions at finer resolution than the energy and economic components, to account for spatial heterogeneity of land...
There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water...

Projects

This project supports Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's contribution to Stanford University's multi-institutional, collaborative project to improve the science of integrated assessment modeling. The primary role of LLNL in the proposed research will be to: Draw on “lessons learned” from the...
Since 2007, DOE's Integrated Assessment Research Program (IARP) has engaged Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in strengthening the capacity of Integrated Assessment Research in general and Integrated Assessment Modeling in particular to address questions about possible impacts of climate change...
Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) work is a part of the City University of New York (CUNY) led proposal #1049181, titled: A Regional Earth System Model of the Northeast Corridor: Analyzing 21st Century Climate and Environment, that was recommended for funding under a NSF/DOE/USDA Collaborative...
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in partnership with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), is developing and applying a regional integrated assessment and Earth system modeling framework to the Gulf Coast region of the United States—a region where climate impacts and adaptation,...
Climate Change Modeling research will improve understanding and the ability to simulate the pace and magnitude of future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the impacts of climate change on human and natural Earth systems with particular emphasis on interactions between energy technology, climate...