Climate Model Simulations of the Observed Early-2000s Hiatus of Global Warming

TitleClimate Model Simulations of the Observed Early-2000s Hiatus of Global Warming
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2014
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume4
Pages898-902
Date Published09/2014
Abstract / Summary

The slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.

DOI10.1038/nclimate2357
Journal: Nature Climate Change
Year of Publication: 2014
Volume: 4
Pages: 898-902
Date Published: 09/2014

The slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations1. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.

DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2357
Citation:
Meehl, GA, H Teng, and JM Arblaster.  2014.  "Climate Model Simulations of the Observed Early-2000s Hiatus of Global Warming."  Nature Climate Change 4: 898-902.  https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2357.