CMIP5 Multi-model Initialized Decadal Hindcasts for the Mid-1970s Shift and Early-2000s Hiatus and Predictions for 2016-2035

TitleCMIP5 Multi-model Initialized Decadal Hindcasts for the Mid-1970s Shift and Early-2000s Hiatus and Predictions for 2016-2035
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2014
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume41
Number5
Pages1711–1716
Date Published03/2014
Abstract

Compared to uninitialized climate change projections, a multi-model ensemble from the CMIP5 10 year decadal prediction experiments produces more warming during the mid-1970s climate shift and less warming in the early 2000s hiatus in both the tropical Indo-Pacific region and globally averaged surface air temperature (TAS) in closer agreement with observations. Assuming bias in TAS has stabilized in the 10 year predictions, after bias adjustment, TAS anomalies for the 2016–2035 period in the 30 year predictions initialized in 2006 are about 16% less than the uninitialized projections. One contributing factor for the improved climate simulation is the bias adjustment, which corrects the models' systematic errors and higher-than-observed decadal warming trend. Another important factor is the initialization with observations which constrains the ocean such that the starting points of the initialized simulations are close to the observed initial states.

DOI10.1002/2014GL059256
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
Number: 5
Volume: 41

Compared to uninitialized climate change projections, a multi-model ensemble from the CMIP5 10 year decadal prediction experiments produces more warming during the mid-1970s climate shift and less warming in the early 2000s hiatus in both the tropical Indo-Pacific region and globally averaged surface air temperature (TAS) in closer agreement with observations. Assuming bias in TAS has stabilized in the 10 year predictions, after bias adjustment, TAS anomalies for the 2016–2035 period in the 30 year predictions initialized in 2006 are about 16% less than the uninitialized projections. One contributing factor for the improved climate simulation is the bias adjustment, which corrects the models' systematic errors and higher-than-observed decadal warming trend. Another important factor is the initialization with observations which constrains the ocean such that the starting points of the initialized simulations are close to the observed initial states.

DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059256
Year of Publication: 2014
Citation: "CMIP5 Multi-model Initialized Decadal Hindcasts for the Mid-1970s Shift and Early-2000s Hiatus and Predictions for 2016-2035." Geophysical Research Letters. 2014;41:1711-1716.