Shape of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and the Indian Monsoon

TitleShape of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and the Indian Monsoon
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2018
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume45
Number19
Pages10,746-10,755
Date Published10/2018
Abstract

We find a significant enhancement of the North Atlantic subtropical high on interannual timescales (1970–2016) concurrently linked to an anomalously strong Indian monsoon in September. Consistent with a stronger North Atlantic subtropical high, enhanced anticyclonic flow and subtropical easterlies in the eastern Atlantic basin are found during strong monsoon years. Observational regression analysis combined with a statistical track model is used to assess the influence of these monsoon‐linked wind variations on Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) tracks originating in the main development region. When controlling for effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a westward shift of TC tracks is shown to be robustly correlated to internal monsoon variability in September. This work highlights the variability of the Indian monsoon as an additional constraint on Atlantic TCs, with increased landfall probability during a strong monsoon. The previous attribution of similar steering effects to ENSO needs to be reconsidered to account for ENSO's correlation with the monsoon.

URLhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018gl080098
DOI10.1029/2018gl080098
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
Number: 19
Volume: 45

We find a significant enhancement of the North Atlantic subtropical high on interannual timescales (1970–2016) concurrently linked to an anomalously strong Indian monsoon in September. Consistent with a stronger North Atlantic subtropical high, enhanced anticyclonic flow and subtropical easterlies in the eastern Atlantic basin are found during strong monsoon years. Observational regression analysis combined with a statistical track model is used to assess the influence of these monsoon‐linked wind variations on Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) tracks originating in the main development region. When controlling for effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a westward shift of TC tracks is shown to be robustly correlated to internal monsoon variability in September. This work highlights the variability of the Indian monsoon as an additional constraint on Atlantic TCs, with increased landfall probability during a strong monsoon. The previous attribution of similar steering effects to ENSO needs to be reconsidered to account for ENSO's correlation with the monsoon.

DOI: 10.1029/2018gl080098
Year of Publication: 2018
Citation:
Kelly, P, L Leung, K Balaguru, W Xu, B Mapes, and B Soden.  2018.  "Shape of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and the Indian Monsoon."  Geophysical Research Letters 45(19): 10746-10755, doi:10.1029/2018gl080098.