Biological and Environmental Research - Earth and Environmental System Sciences
Earth and Environmental System Modeling
09 November 2018

Interannual Variability of Wind Climates and Wind Turbine Annual Energy Production


This study provides improved quantification of interannual variability (IAV) of power production (AEP) from wind farms over eastern N. America using purpose-performed long-term numerical simulations with WRF. Our analyses indicate it may be appropriate to reduce the IAV applied to preconstruction AEP estimates, which would decrease the cost of capital for wind farm developments.


Interannual variability of expected annual energy production (AEP) from proposed wind farms is quantified and shows industry standard assumptions are too conservative leading to an excess cost of capital (in an amount likely exceeding 100’s millions of dollars per year). We validate our simulations using real power production output from operating wind farms.


Our research comprises purpose performed high-resolution WRF simulations post-processed with real wind turbine power curves to derive robust AEP estimates.

S.C. Pryor
Cornell University
Pryor, SC, TJ Shepherd, and RJ Barthelmie.  2018.  "Interannual Variability of Wind Climates and Wind Turbine Annual Energy Production."  Wind Energy Science 3(2): 651-665.