Robustness and Uncertainties in Global Multivariate Wind-Wave Climate Projections
We present findings from the first ‘coherent’, community-based multi-method ensemble of wave-climate projections, derived from ten global studies using a designed pre-established framework. Under a business-as-usual RCP8.5 pathway, we identify robust projected changes in at least one wave variable on ~52% of the world’s coastline with magnitudes of up to ~5-10%. We find that the total variance within the community-ensemble is largely dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty.
Approximately 220 million people currently residing in low-elevation coastal regions are vulnerable to future wave-driven hazards. Anticipated changes to wave climate will result from a combination of meteorological-driven changes in global near-surface ocean winds and morphological-driven changes nearshore, and can potentially aggravate or exceed impacts of projected sea-level rise
The LBNL contribution to this community paper was data from their high-resolution simulations of the CAM5 global atmospheric model performed at the National Energy Research Supercomputer Center. This article was selected as the cover article for Nature Climate Change