Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble from 1920 to 2100
The CESM Large Ensemble is used to quantify and evaluate the forced response in regional sea level from 1920 to 2100. The response is found to make a significant contribution to regional historical sea-level variability and be primarily influenced by changes in steric effects driven by anomalous surface heat fluxes.
The forced response in regional sea level in many regions compounds the effects of global rise and internal variability. It also aliases onto the locations of tide gauges and has yet to be accounted for in tide gauge reconstructions. This analysis provides a path forward for both improving our estimates of past change and projecting the future.
A sizable forced response of regional sea-level rise is shown to emerge in the mid 20th C and vary in space and time through 2100. It’s driving mechanisms and broader consequences are explored.